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It never gets old, seeing the Under Contract signs, and if it feels like you’re seeing fewer of those than we did last year, you’re right.

But it’s not because Buyers aren’t putting offers on homes — It’s because Sellers aren’t hitting the market.

I’m about to show you some graphs and stats (you all know I love some good numbers) that’ll blow your mind. To put it frankly, we are shattering some decades-long numbers here in Grassland. And the greater Franklin & Williamson County areas aren’t far off, either.

These stats aren’t necessarily all bad — or all good. Just eye-catching. The most noteworthy of them is our low Inventory levels. 

Not Enough Homes For Sale

I know you’ve heard this over and over again since 2020 — and it’s only getting worse. It’s not just us, either. This is a problem across Williamson County, in Greater Nashville, throughout the state of Tennessee and across the nation.

Making headlines this week is the fact that the amount of available homes For Sale (inventory) DROPPED nationwide when all expectations had this number rising into Spring. This drop occurs when there are more Buyers than Sellers — the Buyers are snatching up the homes faster than new Sellers can hit the market.

It’s been this way since January 1st this year. We’ve even seen a return to multiple-offers and 0 Days on Market for a lot of homes locally. But many Lending models had this pattern ending with January. Being the second week in February, Altos Research braced us to start seeing 1-2% weekly increases in inventory this month, providing more options for Buyers. But instead, closed last week with a 3% DECREASE in inventory!

As of the end of last week, there were only 443,000 single family homes for sale across the US. For perspective, about 5 and a half million homes are bought and sold in the US each year — this typically being the time of year with the most of that activity.

In Williamson County, we’re starting this year in much better shape than last year — but still below 2019 inventory levels, which are still considered too low. The blue dot on the left of this graph shows January 2023 – starting this year in considerably better shape than 2022, but still a ways to catch up to 2019.

And when you dig even further on how this decline in inventory affects our housing prices, it’s easy to see why our homes have maintained a lot of the value we gained in the past two years.
This graph compares Williamson County home sales prices from January to January every year for the past 21 years. You can see our prices became unhinged from the number of homes sold during the Great Recession, never to reconnect again. As we entered into the Covid Era, our sales price growth really accelerated with the decline in the number of homes sold. As of this past January, homes and interest rates are still not so high that Buyers cannot afford them. There is still more Buyer appetite than there are homes For Sale, and the prices continue to rise accordingly on the homes that sold.
Here in Williamson County, we’ve had a 29% decrease in the homes Sold year-to-year, from January 2022 to January 2023.
In Grassland, it’s nearly a 50% decrease. Only 13 homes sold the entire month of January here in Grassland. That’s helped stabilize our prices. In January, our median sales price landed just a hair above the 2022 average of monthly sales prices.
Williamson County’s ValuesArrington is holding firm as the lead in median home sales prices, though we have experienced a bit of downward pressure throughout Williamson County these past several months.
As you can see above, Grassland has started out 2023 just a hair above our 2022 median average. Here is how the rest of Williamson County’s ‘burbs rank with median sales prices in January:

• Fairview: $495,000
• Spring Hill (Williamson Co): $570,000
• Thompsons Station: $680,000
• Nolensville: $829,990
• College Grove: $885,000
• Grassland: $900,000
• Franklin: $960,000
• Brentwood: $1,314,000
• Arrington: $1,465,226

It’ll be interesting to see how our area plays out with stability in the next couple of months. The most recent inflation report released yesterday (Valentine’s Day) didn’t exactly give me the warm and fuzzies. Mortgage interest rates increased in response, and there is a good chance The Fed will likely be more aggressive in their response during their March 22nd meeting to reign in inflation even further.
All this coincides with spring Real Estate market, so it’s hard to tell if we’ll see much change in our resilient Williamson County market. If we do, how much.
Game PlanningWhat we know for sure is what’s happening right now. Right now, the market is moving. Homes are selling, Sellers are getting at or close-to asking price. Multiple offers are happening in some cases again, and prices vs interest rates are still affordable for enough Buyers.
I’m telling my clients to jump on it. If you’re a Seller, get off the fence now, while we know what we’re working with. If you’re a Buyer, and you depend on interest rates, it is likely in your best interest to act before the Fed meets again on March 22. We’ve seen in the above graphs and info that historically, if homes around here aren’t selling, Sellers won’t sell. It’s highly unlikely that we’ll see pre-2020 prices again. So get in the market before your options are even more limited and the interest rates (and possibly prices) go up again.
I was able to successfully predict December as the best time to buy a home around here. I couldn’t have been more accurate in urging Buyers to take advantage of the December market. Right now is the next best opportunity. It’s a great time for Sellers, too, for much of the same reasons (since Sellers depend on the appetite of Buyers). 
But for anyone to predict beyond the next couple of weeks is close to impossible — there are just too many moving variables economically and on the worldwide stage. We need to see where the chips land after the Fed meeting in March, and the aftermath in April.
Meanwhile, I’ll leave you with this 60-second video, initially posted on my instagram page last week. It still rings true.

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Need a plan tailored to your needs? Reach out! I’m a Franklin resident and a Multi-Platinum Award-Winning Williamson County REALTOR ranking in the top 1.5% of agents in Williamson County. I am a Million-Dollar GUILD Member of the Luxury Home Marketing Institute, my market insights are regularly featured in broadcast media, and my success planted me on the front page of a December 2021 Nashville-area Magazine. But most importantly, I specialize in helping my friends and neighbors buy and sell homes.