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I’m going to be frank about what’s happening: Our Real Estate wings have gotten wet. This current market feels like we’re somewhere between grounded and blowing in the wind. Many Buyers and Sellers feel little-to-no urgency, a lot of people are confused and don’t have clear direction right now. Some are paralyzed with fear.
Personally, I don’t think it’s all bad. We all really needed this — physically, financially and mentally. It’s a cooling off period that is often mandated in other industries. For us, it’s driven by high prices and mortgage interest rates. But if you feel like it’s hard to know what’s next, you’re not alone. So many economists themselves are admitting they’ve whiffed on predictions. The tea leaves are hard to read right now due to mixed signals and patterns not seen before. Even some of the heaviest hitters in the industry are calling this the most confusing time they’ve experienced in 40+ years of real estate.
Following daily mortgage interest rate changes, you won’t be shocked see what the trends look like on paper. They almost look like a butterfly’s flight pattern — up and down with every movement, slowly making progress toward one direction before a quick change of course.
Even as I type this, our mortgage interest rates have changed, and no longer reflect the rates reported by OptimalBlue as of the close of business Friday.

Along with mortgage interest rates, our inventory continues to creep up nationwide, as do our Days on Market. And in most cities across the country, including greater Nashville, our home prices are also [still] on the rise. “The market still favors Sellers more than it historically has during this time of year,” says Mike McElroy, managing Broker for Center Coast Realty in Chicago. “We’re in a weird situation where demand is lower than it was in 2021, but there are still even fewer homes for sale than there were last year.”

Our inventory levels are still HALF of what they were pre-pandemic yet it feels like For Sale signs are flooding our streets. It’s all just… weird.Here in GrasslandOur most recent month of sales (July 2022) shows 29 closings — which is LOW– with the average home still fetching just more than list price.
Compare this to previous years:

• July 2021: 48 sales and the average home was getting about $23,000 over list price.
• July 2020: 60 sales and the average home sold for less than list price.
• July 2019: 56 sales and the average home sold for even less than list price.

So – fewer homes have sold here in Grassland year-to-year, which in this era is likely due to fewer Buyers than homes For Sale. Except, we’re still seeing homes sell for more than list price.

The picture is much the same in the Greater Williamson County market, with a 29% reduction in homes sold yet our county prices continue to remain strong.

Nationally, inventory levels are around 3.3 months of supply, which means it’ll take that long for a home to sell. More than 6 months of supply is considered a Buyer’s market.

Williamson County is performing in even more of a Sellers market, with 2.9 months of supply. Even more of a Seller’s market in Grassland with 2.3 months of supply.

Obviously, this won’t last long — real estate is chronically cyclical. And just when we think we’ve figured it out, it’ll change.

We’ve already almost reached 6% mortgage interest rates as the Fed works to decrease Buyer demand in order to balance with the low inventory – in all industries. Last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell issued a speech with words like “pain to households and businesses” in order to “moderate demand to better align with supply.” I think it’ll likely get worse before it gets better in our economy. The big questions are how bad will it get and when will it get better. So many people are wanting to time Real Estate purchases on the answers to these questions.

National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun says with confidence, “With mortgage rates expected to stabilize near 6% and steady job creation, home sales should start to rise by early 2023.”

I think it’s possible depending on market responses to the Fed action and Fed response to inflation. 

A Key MetricTwo things I think are important to keep an eye on are Price Reductions and Expired Listings. Nationwide, these numbers continue to increase which could put downward pressure on prices if it persists too long. I suspect this thinking led to the creation of the term “housing recession.”
Housing Recession is a newly made-up phrase within the past few weeks or so, and no one really knows the definition or its origin, but it’s leading headlines on all the major media outlets. (Perhaps they’re the ones who made it up?) Regardless, I imagine it relates to housing market peaks and prices collectively sliding, and I’m sure that’s happening in certain areas that saw the most inflation of home prices.
Generally speaking, if metrics in Price Reductions and Expired Listings are above 10-20%, we could be in that “housing recession” territory.
Here in Williamson County, about 9% of our listings have Expired in the past month.and about 35% of our listings have reduced price. So we are in that range.
In Grassland, about 19% of our listings have Expired in the past month and about 41% have reduced price.
For perspective, there were 0 Expired listings in Grassland just weeks ago.
This tells me our prices need not be so aggressive here anymore. We may even start to see a dip in our values soon – though I don’t expect it to be dramatic.
When I help Sellers price homes and Buyers put in offers, this metric is the one I pay attention to — and it’s constantly fluctuating. This will tell us the right price for market expectations, and will put Sellers and Buyers on top with current market demand regardless of where our market takes us.
*How* to operate is key here. If you know how to work in any market, you can win.State of Real Estate

Let’s take a pulse at where we currently stand, and how it compares. I put this graph together for Williamson County with July’s numbers, since this is the month most recently closed out.

• Our Days on Market has increased by 3 month-to-month.
• Active listings are up by about 200 month-to-month.
• The number of Closings is down by about 35% month-to-month.
• Average sales price has increased since June.
• Average sales price is $196,000 higher year-to-year.

All this is based on RealTracs data from the Williamson County Association of Realtors. 
Looking ahead at leading indicators, which help predict our immediate future, 1112 homes are Under Contract and only 975 are currently Active county-wide. This is a dramatic reversal in the numbers seen above, assuming most of the UC would close in 30-45 days. Compare this to only 375 Closed in July, and August’s numbers could look quite different. This could be a sign of a continued Sellers market here.
Did We Miss the Opportunity?A lot of Sellers are asking this question right now as they wait longer to sell homes and Buyers have room to negotiate again. Buyers ask this question as it’s unclear exactly where the market is headed. So many Buyers spent the past few months just paralyzed in fear and what-ifs, or speculation that prices will crash or hoping interest rates will go back down.
Personally, I believe we will continue to see home prices stabilize here in Williamson County in the form of decreased value gains. This DOES NOT necessarily mean decreased values. It just means a lower rate of month-to-month and year-to-year appreciation than we have been used to seeing.
I think we will continue to see mortgage interest rates increasing as our supply and demand continue to be so far out of balance. I expect we will continue in this economic downturn until inflation gets under control — and it has a far way to go still.
There are quite a few economists and institutions also calling for a downturn — but not one of those sources are predicting anything near as dramatic as the Great Recession. This is largely because the majority of US homeowners have solid personal finances, unemployment is low and people have enough equity in their homes by now to sell rather than foreclose should stuff hit the fan.
I think once we get past this period, with most people relatively unscathed (especially here in Williamson County), we’ll see home prices creep up again. Hopefully by then, it’ll be at more normal rates — like when people used to buy and sell real estate for different floor plans and locations rather than as a means to fund retirement. Increased Days on Market are also here to stay, as well as negotiating terms with Buyers.
In a market like this, everyone wins. Even now, we’re not necessarily grounded with wet wings. There is opportunity floating around every corner. 

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For questions about selling or buying a home, please reach out! I’m a Grassland area resident and a Multi-Platinum Award-Winning Williamson County REALTOR ranking in the top 1.5% of agents in Williamson County. I am a Million-Dollar GUILD Member of the Luxury Home Marketing Institute, my market insights are regularly featured in broadcast media, and my success planted me on the front page of a December 2021 Nashville-area Magazine. But most importantly, I specialize in helping my friends and neighbors buy and sell homes.