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Back At It!
The majority of Middle Tennessee students are back to school now – Including the Kindergartners, who are typically on a delayed schedule in Williamson County Schools.
I don’t know about you, but it takes my family a solid 2 weeks to get past all the Open Houses, initiations, paying all the fees for fundraisers, responding to parent emails and all the other adult “homework.”
In that process, my husband and I walked the halls, on the schedule of our middle schooler, and wow — It was as busy and complicated as an adult’s typical day. Hats off to our kids for working so hard, multi-tasking and taking it in stride!
They’re that much closer to being adults – and working like adults (wahhh wahhhhh). Coincidentally, the national acknowledgment of American workers is less than 2 weeks away.
Labor Day Uptick
It’s a pattern in Real Estate that Labor Day, though a holiday to acknowledge how workers built America in the 1800s, is the beginning of our last big burst of energy in the market for the year. People are settled into a school schedule by early September, most people are back from all the Summer vacations, and gearing up for any moves to be made by the holidays.
This is typically the time of year, too, when inventory and prices go down. So for Buyers, if you can find something you like, right now is typically a good time to snag it.
As you can see, here locally, our prices typically dip down through August and by the time September is done, they’ve worked their way up gradually to end the year higher than where we started the year. Our blue line so far this year shows a pattern of reacting dramatically upward and downward to the typical trend. Right now, we’re in a dramatically downward slope. Don’t miss it!
It’s worth noting, as seen above, we begin every year at higher prices in January than where we ended the year before. Not even the “down” years of 2022 and 2023 were exceptions. So this could very well be your LAST chance to snag a home at a price this low.
Obviously, the economy is its own beast, and national headlines are all presenting a doomsday scenario right now. But it’s very realistic to expect if worst case scenario happens here locally, we just won’t see any increase in prices. Year-to-Year, our price appreciation rate could be ZERO. (Right now, we’re at 9% YTY average price appreciation, meaning our average sales prices are 9% higher in July 2024 than in July 2023). However, more normal projections are in a 3% appreciation range YTY for 2025.
Inventory Remains Low
While I’m picking on national news headlines, take a look at the dramatic difference this graph shows from what you’ve been hearing about homes on the market and potential foreclosures. Turns out, we do NOT have a glut of homes on the market in Williamson County.
In fact, we’re shaping up to have the healthiest inventory pattern that we’ve experienced since 2019!
The green line is 2024 so far.
2019 is the red line and the last “normal” year in Real Estate.
See how they’re mimicking the same pattern? This is great news. The only other improvement we need is for 2025’s line to be as high as 2019’s. This would mean an increase in inventory which is what’s needed to get Buyers back out to the market. Even 2019’s line was considered low back then.
Sellers Don’t Have Much Competition
There’s not a whole lot to compete against right now. But unfortunately, there aren’t a huge amount of Buyers either due to a combination of things we continue to discuss — few choices, high prices, higher interest rates and the uncertainty of a looming presidential election.
There is a historical pattern of decreasing mortgage interest rates in the months and weeks leading up to the November election. That would coincide nicely with our typical Fall increase in activity. But that’s not going to make prices go down. It’ll likely have the opposite effect.
Once a new President is named, prices and activity typically resume as though it’s the new year, regardless of who wins. I have a deeper dive into the historical election year Real Estate trends in my June blog post linked here.
Mortgage Rate Check
In the past six months, mortgage rates have been in a downward motion. The 30-year fixed sitting about 1% lower than in February, according to Mortgage News Daily. Of course, you’d need to consult a Lender for how these rates would translate in your own financial situation — Different factors and products amount to different prices.
I have a list of trusted Lenders who I refer and work with often if you’d like to rate shop! Just reach out if so.
It is the expectation that we will see rates go even lower and continue this downward trend through November.
Numbers Don’t Lie
While the whole of Williamson County typically out-performs the rest of the US, Greater Nashville can be almost as volatile as mortgage interest rates.
Where Williamson County sees gains in prices, Greater Nashville’s gains are not typically as dramatic and often times mirror closer to nationwide patterns.
Looking at Greater Nashville’s most recent market update in July, it seems that is the case — The area is still seeing gains in median price to the tune of 2% Year-to-Year. We’re also seeing a 25% increase in inventory across the midstate, which would account for why the YTY increase in median price is only 2%. The number of Closings and homes Under Contract are down YTY as the number of homes on the market go up.
We’ve talked about the whole of Willamson County and how the home prices have performed, but here’s a deeper look into what made up those numbers and how each area has performed through July 2024:
Fairview kicks off the list with a Median sales price of $632,070! Our traditionally most affordable town in Williamson County is far above the half-million dollar entry point. See my point about affordability? The rest of our areas are as follows..
- Spring Hill (Williamson only): $722,400
- Thompsons Station: $834,950
- Franklin: $894,250
- Arrington: $963,953
- Nolensville: $1,000,000
- College Grove: $1,373,597
- Brentwood: $1,486,500
The Last Push
I typically say Labor Day begins the last push of the year in our market, and it typically winds down for the year around Halloween.
This year though, with the election at the beginning of November, we could see our local market strength build momentum through Spring and not have the traditional lull in November and December. In fact, I would say in Williamson County, that scenario is not just possible but highly likely.
So here we are, less than two weeks from Labor Day with no real break on the horizon — except maybe mortgage interest rates! And for so many Buyers and Sellers, that’s the break they are waiting for. My preference however, is act while prices are likely as low as they’ll be because that’s the one number you can never change, and you can score some more perks now before the last push, while no one else is looking.
Thinking of moving? Need a plan tailored to your needs? I’d love to help you. I’m a Franklin resident and a Multi-Platinum Award-Winning Williamson County REALTOR ranking in the top 1.5% of agents locally. I am a top producer within Benchmark Realty, the largest brokerage in Tennessee and among the largest in the country. My continuing education includes several designations and my experience keeps me up-to-date with fast-changing market trends. I am a Million-Dollar GUILD Member of the Luxury Home Marketing Institute, my market insights are regularly featured in broadcast media, and my success planted me on the front page of a December 2021 Nashville-area Magazine. But most importantly, I specialize in helping my friends and neighbors buy and sell homes. Why look further when you’ve got a friend and neighbor who is among the best in the business!
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