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Ah, the end-of-the-year family photo shoots — the unofficial kick-off to the busy-ness of the holiday season. Our family is no different when it comes to these obligations moments.. and even our dog gets dragged along.
The look on her face mirrors mine when I think about Thanksgiving approaching next week. How are we already 11-months deep into 2024? (But also, like her, I’m always down for a good home-cooked meal!)
We’ve had a lot going on this year, including a Presidential Election. Many Buyers and Sellers have sat on the sidelines for all of 2023 and 2024, waiting to feel some level of comfort in home prices, interest rates or just the overall economy.
In the meantime, we seem to have some idea now on how the economy will shake out. Interest rates are about a point lower year-to-year (though still not enticing), yet home prices here locally anyway continue to grow.
Home Price Growth
It really is quite a phenomenon, the surprising strength of the US economy, and specifically the Greater Nashville area. Greater Nashville is very much a diversified area, propped up by entertainment, tourism, the health industry, finance and tech. Diving deeper into Williamson County, the Mayor and Aldermen have actively worked to further insulate us since the 2008 Recession. We feel less pain in economic tightening than the whole of Greater Nashville, and Greater Nashville typically feels less pain than the US, generally speaking.
Across the US, home price growth is positive year-to-year. And hyper-locally, this year’s blue dotted line shows Williamson County home prices eclipsing any of the previous years here.
Every year in recent history, we’ve started off higher than we ended the last year, and there is no indication that 2025 will be any different.
Fannie Mae economists say fears of a Recession are quelled, and home prices are likely to keep rising while mortgage rates may not come down as quickly as hoped or expected.
Consumer Outlook
Sentiment in the housing market rose in October to the highest level since February 2022.
Also on the rise? Mortgage applications. Indications show, year-to-year, about 1% more home buyers are in the market than we had this time last year with FHA and VA loans showing stronger growth. That’s no surprise as these mortgages are government-backed and offer lower interest rates and down payment requirements.
Only 1 in 5 home buyers are expecting mortgage interest rates to go higher in 2025, according to Realtor.com.
And as is typical, there is more evidence for a post-election bump in home sales volume and prices. This typically happens after most Presidential elections — not necessarily because of who is elected but I suspect just knowing who is elected gives Buyers some idea or direction on what to expect with the economy. Decreasing uncertainty is key in the Real Estate market.
Realtor.com Chief Economist Danielle Hale says currently, “Data is far more supportive of a pickup in sales and price growth after the election.”
Not Measuring Up
There is one area where, locally, we are trailing behind national metrics.. and that’s with our inventory levels.
Nationwide, inventory is on a dramatic rise — though still falling considerably short of 2019 levels. So nothing to get excited about.
Even less exciting, though, is our hyper-local inventory level. The green dotted line shows us basically flat-lined in 2024 — no sharp rise or fall — and in fact spending the majority of the year so far below last year’s inventory levels! To increase and get closer to 2019 is the goal for pretty much every area across the country. To give Buyers more options will bring more Buyers out, and will also help stabilize our home price appreciation. More healthy levels of everything is good for all of us.
The Year Ahead
I’ll have more on my expectations for 2025 in my next blog post — My annual predictions post! It’s my favorite and most popular post of the year, and looking back, it’s usually spot on.
Meanwhile, eat alllll the Turkey and enjoy any time you get to relax with friends and family this November! (And reach out if you’re in the mood to buy or sell a home while everyone else is snoozing.) It’s our calm before the storm of the holidays and Spring market!
Thinking of moving? Need a plan tailored to your needs? I’d love to help you. I’m a Franklin resident and a Multi-Platinum Award-Winning Williamson County REALTOR ranking in the top 1.5% of agents locally. I am a top producer within Benchmark Realty, the largest brokerage in Tennessee and among the largest in the country. My continuing education includes several designations and my experience keeps me up-to-date with fast-changing market trends. I am a Million-Dollar GUILD Member of the Luxury Home Marketing Institute, my market insights are regularly featured in broadcast media, and my success planted me on the front page of a December 2021 Nashville-area Magazine. But most importantly, I specialize in helping my friends and neighbors buy and sell homes. Why look further when you’ve got a friend and neighbor who is among the best in the business!
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