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And just like that.. It’s mid-May. These weeks are flying by almost as fast as this Real Estate market changes! It feels like there is a slight shift in Buyer and Seller habits about every 8-10 days. And those of us staying on top of these changes and patterns have a lot of clients who are winning right now.

Among the changes I’m seeing at this moment: some promise, especially for Buyers in the market right now.

This home pictured is one of about a half-dozen homes I toured for a set of long-distance Buyers last week, and we officially have it Under Contract!

Just in the past 48 hours, I’ve secured more than $2.5 million in contracts for my clients, and I’m currently negotiating another one, which would put this total well over the $3 million mark by the end of the weekend.

A Leveling Out?

In light of all this activity, some of my Buyer clients waiting in the wings are feeling hopeful that we’re approaching a “leveling out” of the playing field. I won’t go so far in that assessment as each of these recent wins were a hard-fought team effort. A lot of strategy, networking and resources went into our success this week. We are still seeing a lot of stiff competition and my guard is not down. I don’t expect Tennessee’s pipeline of out-of-state cash Buyers will turn off any time soon, and we will likely continue to see exponential price gains in Williamson County — mostly in Grassland, Greater Franklin and Brentwood. So time is still of the essence.

BUT – Here are some factors that, being on the frontlines, I’m starting to see come into play this week:

• A decrease in the amount of Buyers who can afford these elevated prices: Our homes are being priced out of affordability for many people, so that may be eliminating some of the competition.
• Buyers Calling it Quits: So many homebuyers are getting discouraged. They’re tired of fighting for homes, they’re tired of losing offers, they’re tired of the whole game. So they’re staying put – renovating, refinancing or looking elsewhere.
• Sellers have gotten a little cocky on list prices (and rightfully so!): With so much desperation among Buyers and so many homes selling for $50-$100k plus in this area, Sellers are starting to price their homes up there. Many are getting the price, but we are starting to see a bit of pushback on that. In fact, there has always been pushback on homes that hit the market over-priced, we just haven’t seen as many cases of over-priced homes before now. Buyers are not willing to outbid over an already-inflated list price. So competition for those homes isn’t as stiff. Those Sellers may still get over list price, but they may not get the most desirable terms (like relaxed appraisal and inspection contingencies or occupancy after closing.)
• The World is Reopening: Now that the world is opening up again, and school is getting out for the summer, the casual shoppers who were in the market because they had nothing else to do or think about, may be planning to travel. At the very least, they may be going back to their normal lives and activities and exiting the home buying process. (even if just temporarily)

Having said all of this, we’re still in a really sweet spot for Sellers. The Sellers who follow professional advice and execute a solid strategy are winning BIG time. And dare I say.. if they need to buy something else, it may not be as daunting of a process as it was perhaps 2 weeks ago. Plus, interest rates are still really low.

Grassland Market Snapshot

In our little pocket of Williamson County, 36 homes sold in the month of April 2021 with an average sales price of $1,081,408! (Since we’re not yet to the end of May, I’ll compare monthly stats using April as the most recent month.)

This is an increase of 6 homes sold compared to the month before (March 2021), and 3 additional homes sold than in April 2020. I know you’re hearing a lot about an inventory crisis right now, and the truth is we are selling more homes than ever. The problem is we still have even more Buyers than homes for sale. Demand continues to outpace supply, and that’s what’s causing the issue. (And there are a variety of reasons behind this as well, having to do with both supply and demand.)

Because we have more Buyers than Sellers, that’s driving our prices up. Take a look at our average sales price gains year-over-year:

• April 2019: $829,381 – Average price per sf: $192
• April 2020: $882,973 – Average price per sf: $202 (a 6.46% annual increase during stay-home orders and a pandemic!)
• April 2021: $1,081,408 – Average price per sf: $262 (a 22.47% annual increase!)

Obviously, not everyone’s home would be priced at $1.1m and not everyone’s price per square foot would fall around $262. But the take-away comes in the bigger picture — a pattern with enormous equity gains for each of us already here. I predict this extreme rate of increase won’t continue at this rate much longer. But, in a normal year, a 3% to 5% increase in average sales prices is considered reasonable. And with continued demand for our homes in this area, we will likely continue to see equity gains out-pacing the normal rate.

Williamson County by Comparison

Looking at our county in the big picture, the average sales price in April 2021 stands at $875,997. This is about $52,000 higher than the month before! 493 homes sold last month, which is the highest amount of homes ever sold in the county during April! (And it’s still not enough.) The closest April sales number behind it was 450 in 2019.

Here is how our average sales prices stack up to other areas throughout the county as of April 2021:

• Brentwood sold 86 homes at $1,301,698
• College Grove sold 32 homes at $1,230,841
• Arrington sold 13 homes at $1,028,963
• Franklin sold 204 homes at $857,119
• Nolensville sold 41 homes at $612,947
• Thompsons Station sold 39 homes at $584,607
• Fairview sold 28 homes at $579,051
• Spring Hill sold 43 homes at $502,704

Remember, the Grassland area encompasses about 3 zip codes between Nashville, Franklin and Brentwood. So the county lumps our sales prices into the Franklin and Brentwood numbers above. Picture us as a Venn diagram, with all homes zoned for Grassland Middle School in Williamson County.

Grassland Neighborhood Analysis

Click these links to see the homes sold in our neighborhoods during April 2021:

• Two Rivers: 1 home sold at $3,800,000
• Lynnwood Downs: 1 home sold at $3,000,000
• Legends Ridge: 1 home sold at $1,850,000
• Carolina Close: 1 home sold at $1,775,000
• Laurelbrooke: 4 homes sold at $1,737,500 average sales price
• Echo Park: 1 home sold at $1,600,000
• Indian Valley Farms: 1 home sold at $1,200,000
• Jubilee Ridge: 1 home sold at $990,000
• Horseshoe Bend: 1 home sold at $975,000
• River Landing: 2 homes sold, both at $949,900
• Richland Close: 1 home sold at $949,000
• Timberline: 2 homes sold at $924,950 average sales price
• non-neighborhood/530 Natchez Bend Rd: $900,000
• Sneed Forest: 1 home sold at $875,000
• Whitehall Farms: 1 home sold at $799,900
• Hunting Creek Farms: 1 home sold at $675,000
• Temple Hills: 3 homes sold at $666,333 average sales price
• Montpier Farms: 1 home sold at $659,900
• Battlewood Estates: 1 home sold at $659,900
• Leipers Fork area: 1 home sold at $650,000
• Cottonwood: 1 home sold at $615,000
• Fieldstone Farms: 6 homes sold at $529,333 average sales price
• Hillsboro Acres: 1 home sold at $419,999
• Meadowgreen Acres: 1 home sold at $409,000

The Big Picture

Nationwide, the average profit made by a home Seller during the first quarter of 2021 is $70,050. This is up by $14,000 from the first quarter of 2020.

Also, Freddie Mac reported the 30-year fixed mortgaged interest rate averaged 2.94% for the week ending May 13th. This is actually a slight dip from the week prior.

Brentwood Lender George Margrave points to suspicion of a closing door for these low interest rates, saying it’s “a fading opportunity” according to forecasts.

So if you or someone you know isn’t planning to stay in their home 5 years from now, you may want to talk to them about making a move. So many of my current or recent Sellers are empty nesters, riding into the sunset! Buckle up and load up the pup. You could be winning, too!

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For questions about selling or buying a home, please reach out! I’m a Grassland area resident and I’m a Two-Time Platinum Award-Winning Williamson County REALTOR® ranking in the top 1.5% of Realtors in Williamson County. I am a recent Designee of the Luxury Home Marketing Institute, have been featured on TV and my success is the topic of an article in the July 2020 edition of Nashville Real Producers magazine. But most importantly, I specialize in helping my friends and neighbors buy and sell homes!