Return to Erika’s Website

There are few things I love more than Closing Day and posing with a SOLD sign next to happy clients.

And if you listened to some of the housing forecasts, you would think this is the last picture you’d see like this from anyone for a loooong time. It seriously feels like there are no homes For Sale.

In fact, the tightened inventory we’ve faced through Covid continues to get worse. In March, Zillow published its latest market report and said, “There were roughly 730,000 homes For Sale nationwide in February, compared to 1.4 million in February 2020.” That’s about HALF the amount of homes Buyers were able to choose from across the country just 2 years ago.

In Williamson County, we saw a 6% decrease in homes For Sale from February 2021 to February 2022.

Because of this, home prices continue to increase. On top of that, our interest rates are on the upswing. This may all sound hard to reconcile, but I’m here to tell you it’s not all bad. Both Buyers AND Sellers can win right now (and are winning every day)!

Market SnapshotSellers are winning right now for obvious reasons. And when they take advantage of professional advice and marketing, the returns are incredible. A recent set of my clients tried to sell their home themselves, knowing it’s a Sellers market. This would have saved them about $70,000 in agent fees. They had it Under Contract with a neighbor, but the contract ended up failing. After consulting with me, we made some tweaks to their home and listed their home for $200,000 more with a full marketing package — and ended up Under Contract for $350,000 more than where they were initially planning to sell! Realtor fees ended up being an amazing return on their investment. I have 3 other clients with similar stories. It’s been remarkable. 
But for Buyers, the wins aren’t so obvious or dramatic. And looking at our current market, you can see why.
Here in Grassland, we had 24 homes Close on the MLS in February 2022, ranging from $315,000 – $10 million. On average, our Grassland homes sold at $1,290,858. Three years ago, in February 2019, our average sales price was $749,020. On average, we’ve gained about a half-million dollars in equity, within 3 years. WOW!
Here is how the sales break down in February 2022, per neighborhood:

• 2 homes sold in Brentwood Pointe. Average price: $342,500
• 1 home sold in Prescott Place. Price: $410,000
• 1 home sold in River Rest. Price: $510,000
• 1 home sold in Windsor Park. Price: $549,000
• 1 home sold in Gateway Village. Price: $550,000
• 4 homes sold in Fieldstone Farms. Average price: $624,125
• 1 home sold in Monticello. Price: $636,000
• 2 homes sold in Forest Home Farms. Average price: $650,000
• 4 homes sold in Temple Hills. Average price: $1,020,775
• 2 homes sold in Sneed Forest. Average price: $1,235,000
• 1 home sold in Foxen Canyon. Price: $1,451,000
• 2 homes sold in Laurelbrooke. Average price: $1,475,000
• 1 home sold in Echo Estates. Price: $2,700,000
• 1 home sold in Hidden River. Price: $10,000,000

These 24 homes represent a 29% decrease from the number of Grassland homes that sold in February 2021. At the same time, our average sales price year-to-year has increased by 17%. 
On average, Grassland homes are selling at 7% above list price. (It was about 1% below list price in February 2021).
This is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the nuances of our market. And it’s just as important for Buyers to be armed with this information as it is for Sellers. This past week, I got 3 sets of Buyer clients Under Contract within 3 days — paying just enough but not paying too much — because we are armed with all the facts of our market, and knew exactly what to do and when.Changing VariablesIt’s hard for everyone to keep up with real estate since all the variables are constantly changing. But thankfully, it’s your neighborhood nerd’s full-time job. Ha!
Someone at my kids’ school asked me a real estate question the other day, then said “I’m sorry – you’re probably so sick of talking real estate.” That couldn’t be further from the truth! I really do geek out over this stuff, and I’m always happy to share my insights and perspective.
The variable most people are talking about right now are rising interest rates. The last week of March, Freddie Mac reported the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 4.67% from 4.42% the week before. In short, this is a reflection of the dramatic increase of inflation combined with the Fed’s handling of its balance sheet. Mortgage nerds could fill you in more on the nuances of that, but for real estate purposes, this is a dramatic increase in mortgage interest rates which we are seeing combine with our dramatic increases in home sales prices. Quite frankly, a lot of Buyers are now getting priced out of the market.
For example, back in December, our average home price in Williamson County was $998,520. Our mortgage interest rates were around 3% or less. Now, with the rise in interest rates, you’re adding $500/month onto your monthly mortgage payment — on top of the additional money you may have to borrow due to sales prices. 
Our mortgage interest rates are not expected to go down anytime soon. Neither are our home prices, as long as we continue to have more Buyers than homes available. Our rate of home value appreciation most likely will slow down, though, as the Buyer pool becomes thinner due to these variables. Though there is still competition for the foreseeable future, there likely won’t be as much as what we saw in 2021. I’m still urging my Buyer clients to get in while rates are still below the historical average (7.81% annual average on a 30-yr fixed, between 1972 – 2021, according to Freddie Mac). Getting in now will also help Buyers realize some equity for themselves, too, as prices continue to increase before a correction (likely years from now).
For Sellers, selling now is ideal because obviously, you want the most competition among Buyers. And the longer you wait, the more these home price and mortgage rate factors weed out the Buyer pool.Overall OutlookIt continues to be a problem of not having enough homes for people to live, nationwide. The Chief Economist for the National Association of Home Builders, Robert Dietz says, the cost of building materials and homes aren’t expected to go down. Though the home price growth rate may slow down, Dietz says, “housing prices will ultimately be high as long as there’s a housing deficit.”
You have seen firsthand the amount of new homes popping up all around us here in Williamson County. Back in 2019, only about 40% of Williamson County had been developed. I can imaging the change in that statistic now, as once-rural areas like College Grove, Arrington, and Fairview have undergone some MAJOR development.
Here’s how all of the county’s areas rank in average pricing as of February, considering all of this new construction and demand:

• Brentwood: $1,721,386
• College Grove: $1,702,430
• Franklin: $1,329,801
• Grassland: $1,290,858
• Arrington: $1,099,347
• Nolensville: $952,262
• Thompsons Station: $711,683
• Spring Hill: $602,536
• Fairview: $546,801

All these prices combined give Williamson County an average sales price of $1,137,765 in its most recently reported statistics (February 2022).
I expect, when March stats are released, they will be even more incredible, considering the spring market performance I’ve seen in my business alone. And now into April, I’m finding more places of opportunity for my clients that I haven’t seen or experienced since 2020. This year may end up being a story of surprised sideliners — while those still in the game sneak in and win.
Return to Erika’s Website

For questions about selling or buying a home, please reach out! I’m a Grassland area resident and a Multi-Platinum Award-Winning Williamson County REALTOR ranking in the top 1.5% of agents in Williamson County. I am a Million-Dollar GUILD Member of the Luxury Home Marketing Institute, my market insights are regularly featured in broadcast media, and my success planted me on the front page of a December 2021 Nashville-area Magazine. But most importantly, I specialize in helping my friends and neighbors buy and sell homes.