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It’s a strange place we’re in with the state of.. everything. When it comes to Real Estate, when else have we been on the brink of Recession, a lightning-fast rise in mortgage rates, and climbing unaffordability in housing.. yet an $11.5 million dollar home only stays on the market for 8 days?

In a TV News story I was featured in this week, we talked about a home here in our own back yard that has defied everything you’re hearing and seeing on a national level.

It’s been a while since I’ve done a Featured Listing in my blog posts, so let’s dissect this one:

This beauty just outside the Leipers Fork area, 3675 Bear Creek Road, sold on September 17th — just $25,000 below its list price. Realtor Frances Garner listed it at $11,500,000 and the Buyer ended up paying 99.7% of that price, brought by Realtor Jamie Parsons.

The gated entrance leads you down a half-mile long driveway, across pastures and through the rolling Tennessee hills.

The home sits on 143 acres — many of those well maintained and manicured, with 100 acres of wooded space.

A charming creek is about as relaxing as it is picturesque. I can imagine escaping down here on a warm summer day and letting the kids play.
And it seems like Buyers — though able to play a bit more in this market now with contingencies and terms — are still struggling for the upper hand — even on an $11.5 million home. 
I touched on this a bit in my interview on WKRN News 2 Wednesday. Back when the market was “normal” — in 2018/2019 — a home at this price would have taken 3 – 6 months to get Under Contract, simply due to a smaller Buyer pool. Fewer people can afford to buy a house at this price. For a home that costs this much to go Under Contract — at nearly full list price — in just 8 days is incredible in any market. And it certainly contradicts what we’re hearing about the world crumbling around us.
PerspectiveCertainly, we’ve had a tumultuous Summer and Fall in the Real Estate market. There are constant national headlines about prices taking a deep plunge across the country in August. We’ve seen some ups and downs in our sales prices, even here in Williamson County. Closer to home, we’ve seen even more of a dramatic swing in Grassland sales prices, and slow-downs in showings, beginning with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and then continuing with each interest rate hike.
Take a look at how our average sales prices have performed over the past 6 months — and notice that our trend isn’t what’s being reported in the rest of the country, especially in August. Our prices actually appear to be on the up-swing from July:The Fed started raising the funds rate in March and in May. But it wasn’t until mid-June that they raised it by .75 basis points. That sent a shockwave through the market and impacted Buyer confidence. Though mortgage interest rates actually went down in June, they quickly went back up, along with gas prices and costs of living. Uncertainty of the market’s future was a roadblock to confidence in real estate. The Fed’s June move and its impact to our market is evident in the dip in July sales prices, because that’s when June’s contracts would have closed.
It looks as though our Grassland market has spent the past couple of months regaining confidence in our current economic climate — and the important trend is WE ARE regaining confidence. As of the end of September, our average sales price in Grassland hit $1,019,136.
Williamson County seems to be even stronger in September sales. Across the county, there were more homes sold month-to-month, fewer homes hitting the market, and an increase in our average sales prices.
As shown in this graphic, our average sales price in Williamson County hit $1,151,594 in September. That’s a $115,000 increase from August, and a $227,000 increase year-over-year.

Whether this price growth is good or bad is debatable. And there’s mixed opinion on whether this growth will continue — or at least remain level, not losing value.
I will tell you I don’t see a “crash” in values happening here in Williamson County. We may see some hills and valleys in pricing, as shown in the Grassland graph above. But I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again: We won’t see 2019 prices here again.
Just this week, an article came out citing a ranking between Realtor.com and Wall Street Journal data. This ranking puts Franklin & Nashville TN as the number one destination for luxury home Buyers for two straight quarters now. The Gulf Coast of Florida comes in second place behind Middle Tennessee. This is largely attributed to our cost of living, strong workforce and the fact that more people still want to live here.
Neighborhood PricingI haven’t done this in a while – and thought it would be fun to see how September’s home sales in Grassland break down in each neighborhood.
So here is a list of the Grassland neighborhoods that had homes sold in September, the number of homes with a link to them, and their average sales prices:

• Prescott Place (2): $436,750
• Windsor Park (1): $470,000
• Gateway Village (2): $567,500
• Fieldstone Farms (10): $646,200
• Meadowgreen Acres (1): $700,000
• Bethany Hills (1): $825,000
• Trace End Estates (1): $825,000
• Cottonwood: (1): $875,000
• Jubilee Ridge (1): $1,225,000
• Stonebridge Park (1): $1,245,000
• Temple Hills (2): $1,289,696
• Horseshoe Bend (2): $1,322,500
• Montpier Farms (1): $1,399,000
• River Landing (2): $1,425,000
• Harpeth Estates (1): $1,450,000
• Hydeaway Hills (1): $1,550,000
• Longwood (1): $1,755,000
• Legends Ridge (1): $2,250,000
• Echo Estates (1): $3,100,000

Three of the homes sold in September weren’t in neighborhoods, so they’re not included here. Also, having just one or two homes sold in a month isn’t a complete picture of a neighborhood’s performance. But it’s always interesting to get a snapshot, for those of us who live and work here.
We’re Not in the ClearThough our sales prices in Grassland and the greater Williamson County area are up month-to-month, I’m not hopeful that we’ve seen the worst of this economy yet. In all honesty, it’ll likely get worse before it gets better. But how much worse? And how long will it last? Those are the questions that require a crystal ball for answers.
Here are my hunches: Interest rates will continue going up through the first of the year, and possibly the first quarter of 2023. Thankfully, this is happening in a seasonally slow time of the year for Real Estate, so it’s not messing with our typical market pattern too much. We’ll continue to see a trailing off of Buyers and Sellers through the end of the year because of the holidays. The combination of high prices and high interest rates will make the slow season even slower. Sure, we’ll see some sinking home prices, which is typical this time of year. But I don’t think we’ll see even a 5% decrease in sales prices in Grassland or the greater Williamson County area. 
I think by Q2 2023, we’ll be in a recession. Interest rates will start coming down. Once we see interest rates into the high-5%, Buyers will come back out. Because so many Sellers have been in the position to not *have to* sell, we not only have pent-up Buyer demand, but pent-up Seller demand, too. If all of this shakes out, which I think is highly likely, we could have a very active Spring real estate market here.
The Canary EffectWe’ve all heard of the canary in the coal mine. In real estate, the luxury market is usually the most obvious of pieces that crumbles first, simply because of the limited amount of people who can afford to buy at such high prices.
As of September, Williamson County had 101 luxury homes that Closed. On average, they stayed on the market 31 days. And they’re still selling for almost list price. 97.09% of list price, to be exact.
This means that Williamson County’s average luxury home is selling for 2.81% less than list price, which is about a $75,000 difference on a $2,372,000 home. Really, for homes this expensive, less than a 3% difference in sales price is nothing to be alarmed by.
Meanwhile, I continue to be amazed by this most expensive home sale in Williamson County’s most recent history. Here’s a peek at the inside:

— Link to WKRN News 2 Story about Local Luxury Sales —
— Link to article about strong Nashville Luxury home sales —
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For questions about selling or buying a home, please reach out! I’m a Grassland area resident and a Multi-Platinum Award-Winning Williamson County REALTOR ranking in the top 1.5% of agents in Williamson County. I am a Million-Dollar GUILD Member of the Luxury Home Marketing Institute, my market insights are regularly featured in broadcast media, and my success planted me on the front page of a December 2021 Nashville-area Magazine. But most importantly, I specialize in helping my friends and neighbors buy and sell homes.